Implied Probability Calculator
Convert decimal, fractional, or American odds to their implied probability. Compare with your own assessment to identify potential value bets.
Decimal: 1 ÷ odds × 100
Fractional: denominator ÷ (numerator + denominator) × 100
American+: 100 ÷ (odds + 100) × 100
American-: |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100) × 100
Fractional: denominator ÷ (numerator + denominator) × 100
American+: 100 ÷ (odds + 100) × 100
American-: |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100) × 100
Why it matters: Implied probability shows what the bookmaker thinks the chances are. Compare this to your own estimate to find value bets.
Understanding Implied Probability
Every set of odds implies a certain probability. Bookmakers set odds to reflect their estimated chances, plus their margin (overround).
Quick Reference
| Decimal | Probability | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 66.67% | Strong favorite |
| 2.00 | 50.00% | Even money |
| 3.00 | 33.33% | Underdog |
| 5.00 | 20.00% | Long shot |
| 10.00 | 10.00% | Very unlikely |
Finding Value
If you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning, but the odds imply only 40%, that's a value bet. The implied probability is lower than your estimated probability.